I have the need. The need. . . For Tweed.

Faulkner has Sound and the Fury.

The Strokes have Is This It.

Scorsese has Goodfellas.

And I have this Draft Needs article.

(That link you just clicked on is just a link to the current blog you are already reading. I'm referring to this very article.)

Now, it's tough for me to discuss the idea of "drafting for need" all that rationally. It is a concept that I think of regularly, discuss frequently, and despise openly.

First of all, let me extend an olive branch to all of those lovely folks who spend a lot of time discussing what the Bengals "need" on draft day. I was once just like you. I read Kiper and McShay and every dubious mock draft website that follows the "need" path so closely.

We talk about "needs" because it is easy to discuss. We all watched Cincinnati play 17 games last year. We all have a good sense of what they lacked and what they did supremely well. So, an entire industry is built on the concept that the draft is used to plug those gaps in an otherwise extraordinary team.

However, the concept is, at best, misunderstood. And, at worst, complete bullshit. Now, if the NFL was where baseball was with statistic analysis and sample sizes, I could link us to football reference.com and point you to the article showing how dubious of a draft strategy it is, and how rarely it is actually followed. If I had a mathematics degree instead of a full time job I could go through all of Mel Kiper's grades for the last ten years, and show how they dock teams too heavily for "not addressing needs" and how teams that drafted the best players or the players that best fit their system always end up being the best.

No, instead I have to rely on anecdotal evidence to make this point. But, lets point out a few basic concepts, that individuals miss when discussing need.

1. In the NFL, the players who provide "depth" play almost as often as the "starters". So often websites will indicate that a team is "set" at cornerback if they have 2 stud corners; Or "set" at RB with a great back; Or "set" at DE with two good ends. Instead, lets look at the Bengals defense from last year. On every series, Cincinnati played at least: 5 defensive backs (usually 6); 4 linebackers; 3 DTs; and 3 DE's (usually 4). That is not a starting 11, that is a starting 20. Brandon Johnson, the "4th" linebacker was relied on every bit as much Rey was this year; Pat Sims (3rd DT) played every bit as much as Peko; and Morgan Trent (3/4th CB) was in on nearly every significant 3rd down conversion. Also, let's look at the draft. Michael Johnson, Maulauaga, Morgan Trent, and Bernard Scott were all drafted at positions where there were not holes in the starting lineup, yet they all made a huge impact on the team. Chase Coffmann, Andre Smith - huge need; zero impact.
2. Players' positions are more interchangeable than anyone thinks. A few years ago, the New York Giants, loaded with 2 high priced and highly productive defensive ends -Osi Umeniyora and Michael Strahan - drafted Justin Tuck in the 3rd round of the NFL draft. They were slammed for drafting a player who had nowhere to play on their team. Two years later. Tuck, Strahan, and Osi anchored one of the best pass rushes in NFL history leading their team to a Super Bowl, with Tuck specializing as a pass rusher from the DT spot on 3rd downs. Fact is, a great player is a great player. A tackle prospect can be a great guard, CBs can play safety, a pass rush DE can fill in at LB, a super FB can carry the load at RB. And all of these things can happen, while the starter is still playing.
3. Injuries, injuries, injuries. Schemes. Schemes. Schemes. Injuries will happen. They are freak occurences. Mauluaga, Palmer, Joseph. You never know who it will be. And, while we had two stud corners last year, if either of them would have gone down, the defense would have collapsed because they had no decent cover corners on the bench, and because Crocker, who could have filled in at corner, was hurt too. So, you know those twenty players I mentioned in the first point, who played on every defensive series for Cincinnati. Over the course of the season it will be more like 22 - 28. Schemes change constantly. Cincinnati needed two decent right tackles for their big formation last season. I don't want to see it gone just because they might have a decent tight end in the fold.

So, if we don't need to totally remove the concept of need, we have to at least rethink it. The draft is a valuable tool to fill out the roster, to add players in the later rounds who can beef up a this secondary or offensive line. But, early on. You just have to take the best player available and the best player that fits the system.

Soon to come: Draft Needs, part Deux.

-Lippincott's Shorts.